Although he prefers quick wars executed with overwhelming force, the Colonel is not necessarily opposed to extended military operations abroad, if there is a clear mission to be accomplished that can be logically, and Constitutionally, connected to our vital national interests as expressed in a national grand strategy.
The Colonel, who pays rather close attention to such things, has not heard much discussion or debate on any vital U.S. interests served in punching through the ropes at the fighters in the ring in Syria. He's heartened to hear at least a modicum of debate over the Constitutionality of such actions. But, the Colonel is yet to hear anyone, in or outside of the administration, clearly connect targets to vital national interests.
To be sure, the region in which the present political state of Syria now sits is currently more geopolitically important than many other regions around the globe. Historically, the region, owing to its location astride trade routes and buffer zones between rival empires has had more than its fair share of great power interest. Some of the more titanic military clashes in antiquity occurred along the Levantine Corridor -- the Western end of the Fertile Crescent opposite Mesopotamia. Since Pharaoh Necho II of Egypt and Nebuchadnezzar II of Babylon clashed over control of the region in 609 B.C., the Levant has been the battleground for numerous competing empires -- Persian, Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Abbasid, Ottoman, and British to name a few of the more persistent. During the Cold War between the Russian and U.S. empires (and their allies) a series of proxy wars were fought in the region (nominally the Arab - Israeli conflict).
Today, the region is beset by a mishmash of competing religious (inter and intra), cultural, racial, tribal, and clan forces of such a complex and confusing nature that even the most dedicated observer has difficulty keeping them all straight. Add to the mix the designs of a resurgent Russia and an expansionist Iran butting heads with a distracted America (all armed to the teeth and infused with new-found nationalist pride) and you have the makings of a jolly good shoving/shooting match whose escalation to all-out war might just be studied in centuries hence by Chinese military professionals honing their skills in service to Sino world hegemony.
All the more reason for current U.S. policy makers and advisers to take a deep breath and critically analyze the situation in Syria vis-a-vis U.S. vital interests and national grand strategy.
The proximate cause for the coming strike on Assad's toys is his use of chemical weapons in his fight against rebels seeking his overthrow. Mind you, the chemical weapon use "red line" across which Assad has stepped comes on top of a half million dead by "conventional" means and millions more displaced. Two American administrations have called for eventual Assad regime change, but the Colonel sees nothing in the promised coalition (Britain, France, and perhaps Saudi joining the U.S.) air campaign that will bring about that eventuality -- Russia and Iran won't allow it.
If you are looking for the Clausewitzian Center of Gravity, the attack of which will provide the solution to this whole mess, look no further than Putin and the Mad Mullahs in Teheran. Until their influence in Syria, and the larger region, is significantly reduced (if not eliminated), there is zero chance for an end state acceptable to the U.S. and its allies. While the current Iranian regime can be dealt with by application of a high/low mix of military hard power and economic soft power, putting Putin back in a smaller box must be far more carefully managed -- he possesses the second largest nuclear arsenal in the solar system (outside of the sun itself), after all, and his conventional forces are nothing to be trifled with.
Extreme economic pressure on Putin and his oligarch patrons is the key -- the center of gravity -- that can be used to pry Russia out of Syria. Putin's hold on the reins of power in Russia is dependent in large part on his popularity and a cult of personality. A more robust containment strategy employing extreme economic pressure with our NATO allies can break his stranglehold on power, and perhaps return Russia to a more productive role in world affairs.
The Colonel expects the military professionals (the strategic intelligence and deep thoughtfulness of several of whom the Colonel knows first hand) and national security advisers providing courses of action to the President, have tried to nail down Trump's desired end state in Syria and tie proposed actions to a larger strategy in service of American vital interest. The Colonel does not envy their task. The Colonel suspects that it has been a frustrating exercise for both the President and his advisers, made all the more taut by Trump's twitter boasts.
President Trump's publicly expressed desire for extrication from the Syrian Tar Baby will not be accomplished by a feel-good fusilade of GPS-guided kinetics -- particularly if only fired in response to a crossed "red line" and not in connection with a far larger set of strategic goals.
And, make no mistake, the rising peer competitor in the East is paying very close attention to our handling of Russia and Iran vis-a-vis Syria (and with regard to other meddling in places like Ukraine and Yemen, respectively). The Colonel firmly believes, without a hint of hesitation in his military mind, that the vital national interest of these re-United States is best served by maintenance of an unchallenged position as the globe's guarantor of individual freedom and fair-market capitalism. Yes, that means U.S. global hegemony. Would you rather another superpower assume that mantle? Russia? China? The Bureaucratic Socialist Republic of Europe?
Now, if you will excuse the Colonel, he has some plowing to do.
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