Risk Acceptance and the Future of the Republic

At the end of the Roman Republic, two decades before the birth of Christ,  Publius Vergilius Maro (Virgil) -- considered the most famous Roman poet -- penned the epic "Aeneid," chronicling a Trojan warrior's mythic ancestry of Rome.  Virgil took his protagonist, Aeneas, from the "Illiad" and fashioned a virtuous and courageous ancestor to whom Romans could look during a time of political upheaval.   

Virgil's masterpiece was entirely a made-up piece of propaganda, but it was bought hook, line, and sinker by the citizens of Rome.  In particular, Aeneas' "pieta" (selfless loyalty) became the animating spirit of the Roman Empire as it expanded across the known world.

From Aeneas' lips, via Virgil's pen, we have a saying that has motivated human endeavors more than any other like utterance for the millennia since:

Fortes Fortuna Juvat  

Fortune Favors the Brave (or Bold)

The phrase has slipped the lips of men and women of valor in challenging circumstances in every century and on every continent.

Military units across the globe and across the ages have adopted it as their moto and exemplar of their ethos. 

Pliny the Elder said it as he ordered his galley across the Bay of Naples under a cloud of Vesuvius' volcanic fallout in a heroic attempt to rescue fellow Romans at Pompeii. 

Pliny died shortly thereafter.  But that is the point.

The example of Pliny's selfless effort, in the mold of Aeneas, motivated his fellow Romans to greater actions in greater crises thence.

Our Republic currently faces a viral volcano whose fallout threatens to bury every cherished right and privilege for which generations of  Americans have placed their very lives at risk. 

Fortune favored the actions of the brave men who rallied against British government heavy-handedness in 1775.

Fortune favored the commitment of the brave men who pledged their lives and their sacred honor with signatures on the Declaration of Independence in 1776.

Fortune favored the bold act of General George Washington as he gambled on a newly developed smallpox vaccine for his army in winter camp in 1777.

Let's pause and look in depth at that bold move.

Smallpox was raging in North America at the time of the Revolution.  Most of the British soldiers sent to put down the colonial rebellion had already been exposed in Europe and were largely immune.  Those on the American continent were not.  Washington knew that were smallpox to sweep through his army in the field, the debilitating disease would render it completely ineffective and at the mercy of simple British attack.  But, vaccinating against smallpox was considered dangerous and was, dare the Colonel say it, politically incorrect -- the Continental Congress even went so far in their feckless fear as to pass a law forbidding inoculation.  

General Washington was mindful that disease (smallpox included) accounted for nine times more casualties than battles in 18th Century warfare.  He disregarded Congress' political posturing and boldly embarked on a smallpox inoculation program for his army.  Washington had to do it secretly -- his army was within easy striking range of the main British force and if they divined that the rebel army was temporarily incapacitated by the effects of the inoculation, they could stamp out the hope of the rebellion in so far as it depended on Washington's ability to keep an army in the field.   

Washington's bold move could have ended disastrously.  It was a high risk move.  But fortune favored his boldness. In the months ahead, wings of a small, but relatively healthy, Continental Army scored dramatic successes at Saratoga, and exhausted Cornwallis in a chase across the Carolinas.  Without the two of which, the climactic, war-ending battle at Yorktown would not have been possible. 

In the two and a half centuries since, fortune has favored bold American action in the face of daunting challenges, the recounting of which will no doubt risk the patience of the Colonel's meager readership.

The Colonel isn't praising foolhardy risk-taking -- you know, the kind of carelessness that the comely and kind-hearted Miss Brenda reminds him to avoid every time he leaves the house, and for good reason.  No, the key to fortunate outcomes is calculated risk.

Sun Tzu said it best: "Know your enemy and know yourself: in a hundred battles you will not be in peril."

Knowledge, therefore, is the indispensable foundation.

Not feelings...

Not popular belief or majority opinion...

Knowledge  

In any endeavor, if you prepare with study and arm yourself with truth, you will decidedly shift the probability of positive outcome in your favor. 

While a foundation of knowledge -- of the factors bearing on the situation and of one's own capabilities -- is foundational, there is the grasp of another intangible on which fortune smiles:

Morale

Napoleon's equation is instructive: "In war, the moral is to the physical as ten is to one."

Nowhere in the history is the multiplying effect of cohesive morale, and bold leadership more evident that at the 334 B.C. Battle of the Granicus River.

When Phillip of Macedon, the king of a resurgent Greek empire, died, his son Alexander inherited the throne and, with it, Phillip's goal of invading and subduing long-time adversary Persia.

It was a daunting goal.  The Persian Empire was far larger, wealthier, and accomplished than Macedon. 

But, Alexander, barely into his twenties, had quickly consolidated his father's recently-won empire -- quickly subduing rebellious Greek provinces -- and in the process had begun to develop an aura of personal invincibility.  Alexander led from the front; his weapons often drawing first blood. 

And, with his elite shock-troop body-guard, the 300-man Companion Cavalry, as his fiercely loyal and exemplary spearhead, Alexander's battlefield exploits were often the decisive action.  Morale in his army was ascendant.  

When Alexander crossed the Hellespont (the strait separating Greece and Asia Minor) in 334 B.C., the Persian forces in Asia Minor (modern day Turkey) adopted a strategy of exhausting the Greek army until well-defensible terrain could be used to halt and destroy Alexander's invasion force.  That terrain feature was the Granicus River.

When Alexander arrived on the south bank of the Granicus after a rapid and exhausting 60 - mile march, the young warrior king found  his adversary guarding the north bank.  The Persian commander calculated, quite reasonably, that if the Greeks attempted to cross the river the attackers could be cut down as they climbed the Granicus' steep banks on the Persian side.

Alexander's senior generals counseled caution.  They advised Alexander to seek another, less well-defended, crossing.  It was sound advice.

But Alexander had prepared himself mentally, and his army physically, for just this opportunity.  

The odds were against him.  The Persian army far outnumbered his own, and was arrayed in a commanding defensive position.  Alexander's forces needed rest.

Alexander, however, knew that he possessed key intangible strengths vis-a-vis the Persians.

First, Alexander's army was far more cohesive.  Morale springs from cohesion -- the bond between brothers-in-arms -- and, morale rises to leadership by example.  

The army facing Alexander was a polyglot of units drawn from across the Persian empire.  A large component of the Persian force was actually a Greek mercenary outfit.  

Alexander knew his enemy.  He knew his own capabilities.  And, he knew the high spirit of his army -- embodied by his own personal example.

Alexander immediately attacked.

It seems a rash action, taken almost without pause upon his arrival at the Granicus.  But, Alexander calculated the risk of immediate action against that of delaying, and saw the intangible blow to Persian morale going forward were his Greeks triumphant in this first contact.

While Alexander and his Companion Cavalry stood on the right flank of his army, a Greek feint against the Persian right drew attention and forces to meet it.  Alexander then led his spearhead splashing across the river and crashing into the Persian center.

The melee that followed was brutal, but the high morale of Alexander's men, and Alexander's bold leadership, prevailed against the greater numbers of the enemy.

What do the historical examples of Washington's and Alexander's risk-taking mean to our Republic today?  Well, our Republic's future success depends, in the Colonel's not-so humble opinion, on the level of risk adversity that our people allow to creep into their souls.  

The men and women who immigrated to our continent's shores, and then subdued and settled its breadth, were masters of the calculated risk. The safe bet would have been to remain in their countries of origin.  Further, the far less risky course of action for the new Americans would have been to remain huddled in the relative safety of enclaves east of the Appalachians.

But, our ancestors calculated the risk against the potential reward and attacked across their "Granicus."

Our ancestors accepted the risks of inoculation and defeated smallpox, typhus, yellow fever, and polio, even as many of their fellows counseled caution and peddled fear.

Our ancestors stood up to some of the greatest war machines in history -- Great Britain (twice), Germany (twice), Japan, the Soviet Union, to name but a few -- even as many of their fellow Americans counseled appeasement and accommodation.  

The Colonel is at the point of his life where his mortality is felt more and more keenly with every waking.  There's not much left in the tank for physical combat.  But, he will never stop exhorting his fellow Americans to seize on the example of their forebears and adopt the motto: 

Fortune Favors the Bold!            

Passing Away

The Colonel is a patient man. Advanced age does that to a person.

There was a time when he was the pure, living definition of the word: impatient.  Back then the Colonel had time for neither physical nor philosophical dawdlers.  You either got with his program or you turned in your Colonel's Club membership card and suffered disenfranchisement of any of the rights and privileges thereunto pertaining. 

As you can imagine, the Colonel was a lonely man.  The Colonel's Club was less a club and more a one-man band whose beat paced his marching only.  But that didn't keep him from beating the drum loudly and expecting all within earshot to fall in line behind and get in step.

The vigor with which the Colonel wields his mallet has lessened over the years.  And..., he doesn't care nearly as much about the fact that nobody is marching in step behind him.  But, there have been some interesting additions to his parade of late -- stragglers stepping off the curb and closing the wide gap behind.

Take, for instance, the Colonel's stance on the National Football League.  Now, football is the Colonel's favorite game.  Right behind football on the Colonel's list of favorite games there's...  Nope.  That's it.  It's football and nothing else.  

Baseball?  The Colonel would rather watch slug races.

Hockey?  Yankee fistfight.

Soccer?  Egregious waste of a football field.  

Basketball?  Nap time.

The Colonel believes that the game of football is a successful life's perfect metaphor.  Teamwork.  Controlled violence to achieve dominance over a likewise violent competitor.  Combined arms approach to the battlefield.  The muscle-memory value of repetitious training.  Snap deviations when the plan isn't working.  It's all there.   

So, for the Colonel to completely stop watching the NFL nearly two decades ago...  Well, that tells you a little something about what he feels about the situation.

The Colonel stopped watching professional football when it started becoming more about the players than the team.  The Colonel despises Fantasy Football -- the root of all rot in the NFL, in his not-so-humble opinion.

And, now that the NFL has become more a showcase for petulant players' social justice (a term that is about neither the good of all society nor about real color-blind justice) platform, than about a city's or region's pride in it's TEAM, the trickle of disenchanted fans turning off the NFL has become a torrent.

The Colonel says, "Welcome aboard."

There's also something else the Colonel wants to say but he won't...

He shouldn't...

Wouldn't be polite...

Might upset somebody...

Oh, well.  He can't restrain himself.

"What. Took. You. So. Long!!!" 

Did you really believe -- twenty years ago -- that professional football would weather the glorification of individuals over team?  That the NFL would be better for it?  Really?  

So, it actually took entire groups of individuals (can't really call what the NFL fields, teams, anymore) putting a rapist's name on their helmets and disrespecting the hundreds of thousands of American fighting men and women -- of all segments of the most diverse society on the planet --  whose mortal remains were honorably and respectfully covered by the flag during whose anthem they kneel, to make you walk away in disgust.  Have you really not been disgusted before now?  Really?  

At some point in the not too distant future, our nation will be at war with a near-peer competitor who will pose a truly existential threat.  The All Volunteer Force (actually the All Recruited Force -- there is a significant difference) that has provided forces with which our Republic's political leadership (the Colonel uses that term as loosely as a baby's diaper deposit) has dallied in limited objective (read: non-decisive) military adventures abroad over the past half century will not be sufficient for that fight.  When real war comes to the heartland -- the fight with a near-peer competitor will see physical effects across the fruited plains -- every citizen and temporary resident of our Republic will suddenly find themselves deeply involved.  

Think the Wuhan Virus pandemic has been disruptive?  You ain't seen nuthin' that will compare to entire regions of our great nation engulfed in kinetic warfighting effects.  

The NFL will cease to exist.

It already has, as far as the Colonel is concerned.                  

  

The Coming Fourth American Civil War

Ask any public school graduate to provide the very basics of the seminal wars of the American experience and you will be lucky to get a vague accounting that may or may not include the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the War with Mexico, the Civil War, the War with Spain, the First World War, the Second World War, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, and the two major campaign theaters (Iraq and Afghanistan) of the Global War on Terrorism.

Ask for causes and participants in each of the above and you will be lucky to get much more than a shrug of the shoulders and a dismissive, "Dude, that's history.  It don't matter anymore..."  

So, the Colonel knows that any post hereon which deals with any critical analysis of history (particularly causes and effects of military conflicts) runs the risk of finding their way to the bottom of the list of most-read.  Nonetheless, he is uncontrollably driven to posit a likely future event given the current state of American social and political discourse viewed through the lens of American history.

The Colonel believes we are on the cusp of the Fourth American Civil War.

At this point, the Colonel is sure that the lips of a majority of the Alabama and LSU fans who began reading this missive have already tired, and they have left to google search tree-killing herbicides and corndog recipes.  The rest of you dear and valued readers are no doubt scratching your hat racks and asking,

"Fourth American Civil War?"

Yep.  We Americans have endured at least three previous major civil wars since European colonists began beaching boats on the New World's coasts. 

"But, Colonel.  My high school U.S. History teacher taught us that there was just one civil war and it was fought by the North to free the slaves in the South."

The Colonel knows what you were taught.  He had the same textbooks.  But, you see, there are these marvelous things called non-fiction history books that actually contain critical analysis beyond the one paragraph summary indoctrinations provided by modern public school textbooks.  Read enough of these marvelous critical examinations of history and you can actually begin to discern the truth of history.  Not only that, but you can learn to critically analyze the present and predict possible futures.

The Colonel's bit-more-than-cursory examination of history informs him that there have actually been several major, and many minor, civil wars on the North American continent since the 16th Century.  Let's take a look at three from which we can draw conclusions that may inform us about the coming fourth.

King Phillip's War
            Hop in the way-back machine with the Colonel and let's flash back to the year 1675.  The scene is the northeastern region of the future United States we now refer to as New England.  Five decades of European colonists had established enclaves along the New England seaboard and despite on and off skirmishing with the Native American people then occupying the territory (having displaced others), the separate European enclaves had lived largely in peace by establishing alliances with the various tribes against those tribes enemies.  Under the paramount chief of the Wampanoag Confederacy, Massasoit, the native population, though decimated by disease had maintained an equilibrium of sorts with the European settlers and the two occasionally joined forces to resist encroachments and raids by outside tribes.  But, as the tide of European settlement continued rise, competition for land and resources began to mount correspondingly.  The natives were restless.

With the deaths of Massasoit and his oldest son in 1692, Massasoit's younger son, Metacomet assumed leadership of the Wampanoags.  He was a rather prideful man, full of his position, and assumed the name King Phillip because he believed himself to be on par not with the various village and town leaders of the colonists, but with their king in England.  He continued his father's strategy of peaceful social and economic interrelationships with the colonists.  However, he began to doubt that the colonists felt the same way about the relationship that he did, and he chafed at what he considered disrespect and breaking of promises as the settlements expanded into more and more of traditional Wampanoag land.

King Phillip began to conspire with tribes in the interior, whipping up anti-European sentiment and promising to destroy the European settlements before the European population got too big to stop.  But, King Phillip was not able to enlist all of the various tribes in his conspiracy and several remained loyal to the Europeans with whom they had developed deep social and beneficial economic relationships they were loathe to abandon.

During the spring of 1675, warriors from tribes loyal to King Phillip began raids against isolated European settlements.  The European reaction was swift and indiscriminate.  Soon open war wracked the region.  Native Americans were caught up on both sides of the war in fighting and destruction that eclipsed any the region had ever seen.  By the end of hostilities a year later some of the major native tribes had suffered 50 to 80% population losses.  The European colonists had suffered nearly 10% population losses.  Scores of towns and settlements on both sides were completely destroyed.

King Phillip's War, which had enough definitive hallmarks to be considered a civil war, was the most destructive war on the North American continent per capita.  Even surpassing the calamity of the War for Southern Independence (aka Civil War) in 1861 - 1865 in terms of percentage of population and property lost.

King Phillip's War was the first major American civil war.  It's casus belli was primarily competition over land and resources.

The American Revolution
             Arguably, the seeds for the American colonial rebellion against Britain were planted during what we call the French and Indian War  -- a relatively minor campaign in the titanic European struggle that wracked the world in the middle of the 18th Century.  Native American populations again found themselves on both sides of a conflict -- this time between France and England.  Native tribes that attempted to stay out of the fight were indiscriminately attacked by both sides.  

To pay for the cost of that war, Great Britain levied taxes on commerce with its colonies.  The so-called Stamp Act of 1765, requiring that all publications and public records in the American Colonies be printed on paper containing a paid-for stamp, was one of the most ubiquitous and irritating of these taxes -- particularly so because it was imposed without participation and/or approval of the political representation in America.  Ergo the resistance slogan: "No taxation without representation."  

Commercial interests in the New England colonies -- particularly Boston -- agitated more and more fervently against London's heavy-handed and dismissive attitude toward its colonial subjects in America and began to act out in not-so passive resistance.  This prompted a dramatic increase in British troop presence (including mercenary forces) that further exacerbated the situation. 

The British move to seize militia-stockpiled arms and ammunition in Lexington and Concord set the spark to the powder keg of Colonial resentment against the heavy handedness of the Crown -- at least in New England.

In the Southern Colonies the reaction to the anti-Crown activities in New England was a mixture of horror, revulsion, and fear.  There was already developing a cultural divide between the two regions and the Southern Colonies were, frankly, happy with the very beneficial trade of their agricultural commodities with Britain.  The majority of colonists in the Southern Colonies were either completely loyal to the Crown or, in the case of settlers in remote western lands, ambivalent to a concept of "independence" they already enjoyed de facto.  It took more than a year of open hostilities in New England, before the representatives of enough Southern Colonies were cajoled into supporting the Continental Congress' declaration of independence.

It wasn't until the British carried the war to the South in 1780 that more than a small minority of Southerners participated on either side.  But, heavy-handed tactics by Cornwallis and two of his more notorious lieutenants (Lt.Col. Banastre Tarleton and Maj. Patrick Ferguson), incited open warfare (true civil war) between loyalists and rebels (aka patriots).  The intensity of fighting in the war of maneuver employed by General Washington in the north (primarily aimed at keeping a viable force in the field -- the destruction of which would have snuffed out the rebellion) paled in comparison to the ferocity of fighting between Americans in the South as loyalists and rebels (in militia formations and out) settled old scores and created new scores to be settled.

The American Revolution, particularly in the South, was the second American civil war.  

The American Civil War
       The third major civil war on the North American continent (at least since the arrival of Europeans) was the war fought over southern states' secession from the United States.  History written by the winners of that conflict states flatly that the war was fought to "free the slaves." This belies the fact that Lincoln's war to "preserve the Union" did not assume the abolitionist mantle until halfway through the conflict.  Confederate apologists argue that the war was fought over "economic" reasons.  They are correct, but turn a blind eye to the fact that the economy in the south was built on the back of chattel slavery.  

The war fought between 1861 and 1865 was conceived by politicians from two regions (north and south) with widely different economic bases (industrial vs agricultural) and governing philosophies (bias toward national supremacy vs tendency toward state sovereignty).  The war was disastrous for the south -- a significant portion of its infrastructure was wrecked, cities and towns burned, and farms laid waste.  It took the better part of the next century for the region to recover economic vibrancy.  But, from a purely scientific viewpoint, it can be argued that the American Civil War actually sowed seeds of American Exceptionalism whose germination bore amazing fruit in the next century.                                  

The Coming Fourth American Civil War
       War is the single most prevalent theme in the history of man.  Wars between peoples who on the surface have all but the most superficial things in common is common.  Even the most cursory examination of history shows that.  To believe that the American experience will be any different..., well..., it hasn't been so far; and it will likely not be any different in the future.
               

The Colonel believes another major American civil war is all but inevitable, to be fought for much the same reasons the first three major civil wars (and countless minor civil wars) were.   It might even be America's next great conflict...


...or it might be the coming war with China.  The Colonel's crystal ball is a little cloudy on that point this morning. 

     

Good Training

A few years back -- well..., more than just a few actually; but that's not important right now -- the Colonel, in his post-active duty attempt to re-integrate into civilian society (a miserable failure; but that's not important right now, either) was at dinner with some senior executives from a large legacy truck manufacturer whose name will be go unmentioned...

...but, the company's initials are International Truck and Engine Corporation...

The year was 2007.  The ineptly executed and horribly misnamed Global War on Terrorism was in its infancy and the question posed to the military professional at the table was:

"Colonel, how long will this war last?"

The Colonel replied, "What war?"     

The others looked at the Colonel as if he was more than a quart low, so he clarified.

"Look, gentlemen, America ain't 'at war'.  Small portions of our military are at war, but the rest of America isn't any more involved in the 'war effort' than they are in this weekend's NFL games."

The puzzled looks across the table spurred the Colonel on (as if he really needs a reason to pontificate), "You guys know the history of your company, right?  How many civilian vehicles did y'all make in 1943 and 1944?"

There was a quick conference begun opposite the Colonel, and he waved them back to attention, extending a hand with thumb and index finger connected in a circle, "The answer is zero. Your company, and nearly every other company in America, was retooled to build war material.  Your company had as much to do with winning World War Two as any military organization.  When your company goes back to that kind of war footing, then, and only then, can you say 'We are at war'."   

In International's defense, they soon after joined the war effort in a minor but not insignificant way, adapting their medium truck line to build Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles.  Their trucks saved lives.

But, their MRAP line was only a minor sideshow to their continuing civilian truck effort.

It strikes the Colonel this morning, as he watches news of American corporations coming on line to provide "war material" for the current war on the Chicom Virus, that this is good training for what will almost certainly be far more serious threats to the security of the citizens of our Republic in the near future.

A big war is coming.  On this there is not a doubt in the Colonel's military mind.  The current threat from COVID19, while indeed serious, will pale to insignificance in comparison.  

So, we Americans should look at this crisis as good training.

It's good training for the kinds of personal sacrifices that will need to made in the coming war.  There are very few Americans still alive who know -- they made incredible sacrifices in the first half of the last century; sacrifices that make a couple of weeks cooped up with the kiddos look like free passes for life at Disney World.

It's good training for our government -- local, state, and federal.  Hopefully those in government are learning how to focus on the truly important things for which a government exists -- public safety and business-supporting infrastructure.

It's good training for American corporations.  This should be a wake-up call that off-shoring for short-term profit risks complete loss of business when those off-shore countries shut down for reasons nefarious and not.

It's good training for our teenage youth.  Idiotic spring break examples to the contrary, the vast majority of our young people have had their eyes opened to the fact that it ain't all about just them.  They are beginning to see that their actions have consequences not just for them, but for others.

It's good training for our churches and other benevolent organizations.  If you don't understand how, then you need to join one.

It's good training for the Colonel.  It's breaking him out of his self-imposed shell and making him really think about things large and small for the first time in a long time.

Be well, America, and keep training.            

Punctatus Park

The other day, the Colonel and his bride -- the comely and kind-hearted Miss Brenda -- took their evening stroll down to the dock on Lake Brenda to feed the fish.  As the Colonel watched his best friend ladle handfuls of fish food pellets into lazy catfish mouths, he was struck by a enormous inspiration...

"Owww!"

"What are you whining about now, knucklehead?" The comely and kind-hearted Miss Brenda is always closely and carefully attuned to the Colonel's health and welfare.

"The Colonel was just struck by an enormous inspiration!"

"Greeaat.  Another project.  You haven't finished the last forty-six projects you've started over the last ten years."

"What are you talking about?  The Colonel has mostly finished most of his projects.  Besides, if he completely finishes a project, you'll just start adding your projects to his list, and..."

"Watchit, there, Marine.  The things I ask you to do are not 'projects.'  They are requirements to keep the house from falling down around our ears."

"The Colonel would hardly call setting up your quilting frame a requirement related to the structural integrity of the Big House."

"Careful there, knucklehead...  And, why must you always refer to our modest abode as the 'Big House'."

"To differentiate it from there other dwellings on the property, dear."

"What other dwellings?"

"Well, the cabin, for one."

"Cabin? What cabin?"

"The cabin the Colonel is gonna build down here next to the dock on Lake Brenda."

"Forty-seven."

"Huh?"

"That makes forty-seven projects." 

The Colonel paused for a minute, allowed his lower jaw to relax in the slack position favorable to mental calculations, and began counting his projects.

"Are you having a seizure, knucklehead?!?"

"No. Why do you ask?"

"Your pie hole was hanging open, your tongue was hanging out, and your eyes were rolled back in your head!  That's why!"  The comely and kind-hearted Miss Brenda was clearly concerned.  "You looked goofier than a Mississippi State fan with a traumatic brain injury from too much cowbell."

"The Colonel was counting..."

"Well stop!  It's getting dark and I don't want to be out here all night.  Besides, what was this great inspiration you were babbling about."

"Huh? Great insp...?  Oh! You mean the Colonel's enormous inspiration.  Well, it occurs to the Colonel that one of the things missing the most here at the shallow northern end of deep southern nowhere is a family oriented animal attraction theme park.  You know, with the price of gas and restaurant groceries climbing through the roof, folks hereabout just can't afford to drive all the way to Orlando to watch Shamu and his siblings and cousins leaping and splashing."

"Wrap up the preamble ramble, Marine.  The mosquitos are starting to bite."

"Well it occurs to the Colonel that we have the makings of a first class family oriented animal attraction theme park right here on the shores of Lake Brenda."

"Why must you persist in using my name in reference to this scummy mud puddle?"

The Colonel ignored the comely and kind-hearted Miss Brenda's shade thrown on what will soon become the central aquatic feature in the region's newest family oriented animal attraction theme park and held forth with his vision for economic development of his vast holdings at the shallow northern end of deep southern nowhere.   

"So, the Colonel is thinking it is about time these catfish start earning their keep around here.  We've been shoveling tons of fish food pellets down their lazy gullets, and..."

"Yeah, about that, knucklehead.  How much does this stuff cost?"

"You don't wanna know.  Anyway, the Colonel is thinking we've already got these fish trained to achieve vertical orientation in the water column, with mouths protruding above ALL..."

"A L L?"

"Above Lake Level.  We got 'em trained to do that to have food poured into their mouths.  Seems to the Colonel that we ought to next be able to train them to leap out of the water to get their food. Then we can train them to do flips and spins and tail walks..."

"They're catfish, knucklehead!  Nobody's ever trained a catfish to do that!  

"Exactly!  We're gonna be rich!"

"Not if the fish food bill gets out of hand, we won't.  Besides, isn't a catfish brain kinda small?  We aren't talking about dolphin or killer whale level intelligence here."

"Seems to the Colonel that's an advantage for us -- they won't know they are being exploited.  And, conditioned response is a much stronger stimulus than reasoned intelligence."

"You just made that last part up!  Your degree was in political science -- not psychology.  Besides, you didn't even go to college.  You went to Ole Miss, instead."

The Colonel ignored the rapidly darkening shade thrown and finished with a flourish, "We shall call it...  'Punctatus Park!"

"Punky what!?"

"Punctatus.  Ictalurus Punctatus -- the scientific name for the channel catfish." 

"You just made that up, too, didnya knucklehead?"

"Nope.  Look it up.

"Welp, knucklehead, if you don't get me back up to the big house before dark, you can look up the legal name for spousal abuse."

"Why, my dear, the Colonel would never lay a hand on you!"

"Yep. I know that, knucklehead.  But I am not so constrained."


The Colonel has an appointment Monday morning with a patent attorney -- this is gonna be huge!  

The Syrian Tar Baby

The latest installment in the U.S. Forever War series is the current escalation of involvement in the civil war that has wracked Syria over the last decade.

Although he prefers quick wars executed with overwhelming force, the Colonel is not necessarily opposed to extended military operations abroad, if there is a clear mission to be accomplished that can be logically, and Constitutionally, connected to our vital national interests as expressed in a national grand strategy.

The Colonel, who pays rather close attention to such things, has not heard much discussion or debate on any vital U.S. interests served in punching through the ropes at the fighters in the ring in Syria.  He's heartened to hear at least a modicum of debate over the Constitutionality of such actions.  But, the Colonel is yet to hear anyone, in or outside of the administration, clearly connect targets to vital national interests.  

To be sure, the region in which the present political state of Syria now sits is currently more geopolitically important than many other regions around the globe.  Historically, the region, owing to its location astride trade routes and buffer zones between rival empires has had more than its fair share of great power interest.  Some of the more titanic military clashes in antiquity occurred along the Levantine Corridor -- the Western end of the Fertile Crescent opposite Mesopotamia.  Since Pharaoh Necho II of Egypt and Nebuchadnezzar II of Babylon clashed over control of the region in 609 B.C., the Levant has been the battleground for numerous competing empires -- Persian, Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Abbasid, Ottoman, and British to name a few of the more persistent.  During the Cold War between the Russian and U.S. empires (and their allies) a series of proxy wars were fought in the region (nominally the Arab - Israeli conflict).  

Today, the region is beset by a mishmash of competing religious (inter and intra), cultural, racial, tribal, and clan forces of such a complex and confusing nature that even the most dedicated observer has difficulty keeping them all straight.  Add to the mix the designs of a resurgent Russia and an expansionist Iran butting heads with a distracted America (all armed to the teeth and infused with new-found nationalist pride) and you have the makings of a jolly good shoving/shooting match whose escalation to all-out war might just be studied in centuries hence by Chinese military professionals honing their skills in service to Sino world hegemony. 

All the more reason for current U.S. policy makers and advisers to take a deep breath and critically analyze the situation in Syria vis-a-vis U.S. vital interests and national grand strategy.

The proximate cause for the coming strike on Assad's toys is his use of chemical weapons in his fight against rebels seeking his overthrow.  Mind you, the chemical weapon use "red line" across which Assad has stepped comes on top of a half million dead by "conventional" means and millions more displaced.  Two American administrations have called for eventual Assad regime change, but the Colonel sees nothing in the promised coalition (Britain, France, and perhaps Saudi joining the U.S.) air campaign that will bring about that eventuality -- Russia and Iran won't allow it.  

If you are looking for the Clausewitzian Center of Gravity, the attack of which will provide the solution to this whole mess, look no further than Putin and the Mad Mullahs in Teheran.  Until their influence in Syria, and the larger region, is significantly reduced (if not eliminated), there is zero chance for an end state acceptable to the U.S. and its allies.  While the current Iranian regime can be dealt with by application of a high/low mix of military hard power and economic soft power, putting Putin back in a smaller box must be far more carefully managed -- he possesses the second largest nuclear arsenal in the solar system (outside of the sun itself), after all, and his conventional forces are nothing to be trifled with.  

Extreme economic pressure on Putin and his oligarch patrons is the key -- the center of gravity -- that can be used to pry Russia out of Syria.  Putin's hold on the reins of power in Russia is dependent in large part on his popularity and a cult of personality.  A more robust containment strategy employing extreme economic pressure with our NATO allies can break his stranglehold on power, and perhaps return Russia to a more productive role in world affairs.

The Colonel expects the military professionals (the strategic intelligence and deep thoughtfulness of several of whom the Colonel knows first hand) and national security advisers providing courses of action to the President, have tried to nail down Trump's desired end state in Syria and tie proposed actions to a larger strategy in service of American vital interest.  The Colonel does not envy their task.  The Colonel suspects that it has been a frustrating exercise for both the President and his advisers, made all the more taut by Trump's twitter boasts.

President Trump's publicly expressed desire for extrication from the Syrian Tar Baby will not be accomplished by a feel-good fusilade of GPS-guided kinetics -- particularly if only fired in response to a crossed "red line" and not in connection with a far larger set of strategic goals. 

And, make no mistake, the rising peer competitor in the East is paying very close attention to our handling of Russia and Iran vis-a-vis Syria (and with regard to other meddling in places like Ukraine and Yemen, respectively).  The Colonel firmly believes, without a hint of hesitation in his military mind, that the vital national interest of these re-United States is best served by maintenance of an unchallenged position as the globe's guarantor of individual freedom and fair-market capitalism.  Yes, that means U.S. global hegemony.  Would you rather another superpower assume that mantle?  Russia?  China?  The Bureaucratic Socialist Republic of Europe?

Now, if you will excuse the Colonel, he has some plowing to do.                  

Bit By Bit

The Colonel is a bit of a futurist.

Emphasis on a bit.

When the Colonel was an active duty lieutenant colonel of Marines, a general officer added the following reviewing officer comment to a semiannual fitness report:  "... a bit of a visionary." 

While not exactly damnation by faint praise, the general's comment was just ambiguous enough to allow future promotion boards to read into the Colonel's record whatever they wished.  However, this post isn't about the vagaries of performance evaluations and their impact on advancement.  That's all muddy water downstream of a creek crossing, as far as the Colonel is concerned.

For the purpose of this post, he would like to think that the general's perception about the Colonel's foresight does have a bit of validity.
        
His love of history and the lessons of the past inevitably feed the Colonel's imagination for what lies ahead.  Depending on what he's been reading lately, his imagination wanders down one of two distinct paths influenced either by geo-political or technological advance factors.  He's wandering wordy down the latter path this morning.

One of the technological advances that fascinates the Colonel is the science of additive manufacturing (AM).  Or, more colloquially, 3D printing.  The Colonel is a bit of a believer that AM will be more of an economic disrupter than just about anything we've seen since Al Gore invented the internet.

The international standard for AM -- ISO/ASTM52900-15 -- defines seven categories of AM processes within its meaning: binder jetting, directed energy deposition, material extrusion, material jetting, powder bed fusion, sheet lamination and vat photopolymerization.

The Colonel ain't got the first clue what any of the above means. There ain't much math and science in his soul.  His liberal arts education, in and of itself, is hampered by the fact that the Colonel didn't go to college...; he went to Ole Miss.  

But, luckily for the Colonel, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the disruptive arc of this ICBM (innovative computing ballistic missile).  The impact of AM on many areas -- commerce, off-planet exploration, warfare, and healthcare, to name a few -- will be similar to the secondary explosiveness of the revolution in computing witnessed over the last half century.

AM has the potential to be the final nail in the coffin, currently being built by E-commerce, for brick and mortar commercial enterprises.

If you are in the second half of your life expectancy, think back to the 1970's (if you are a life rookie, still in the first half of your life expectancy, just follow along and nod in wonder as the Colonel increases your knowledge).  Computers -- specifically: electronic digital programmable computing devices developed in the middle of the 20th Century -- were the province and property solely of government agencies and very large businesses.  Within a generation, computers (transformed by advancing from vacuum tubes to transistors to integrated circuits) had become infinitely more powerful, fractionally less in size, and exponentially more affordable.  By the middle of the 1990's nearly every home had a ''personal computer" (PC).  A generation later, a billion of us on this big blue marble carry a "smart phone," each with exponentially more computing power than all of the computers with which NASA sent rockets carrying men to the moon. 

Connected via the internet, personal computers and smart phones have revolutionized consumer commerce.  The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic research publication, FRED, shows in the graph below that as of the latest fiscal quarter (Q1, 2017) E-Commerce retail sales as a percentage of total sales has risen from less than one percent at the turn of the century to 8.5% today.  The growth curve displayed below looks pretty darned consistent to the Colonel's untrained eye.  The extrapolated expectation is that the percentage of retail sales conducted via E-Commerce will continue to grow steadily for the foreseeable future.         

"Disruptive" technological advances create new markets, challenge existing industries, and transform the means by which consumers access information, products, and services.  Seen as a "disruption," E-Commerce has undeniably changed the way consumers purchase retail goods, and this change will likely only accelerate going forward.  Disruption, ordinarily denoting a negative action, should not be viewed through that restrictive lens.  Disruptive technologies and innovations have regularly appeared on the scene throughout history.  Disruptive innovation has negative consequences for those that fail to adapt and positive consequences for those that early adopt.  The Colonel believes, with just a bit of vision, that AM (certainly capitalizing on, and leveraging, the revolution in connected computing) will be even more disruptive than the revolution in connected computing.

Using the personal computer analog, AM should follow a roughly similar line of advance.  Today, 3D printers are primarily the province and property of large commercial concerns and educational research, such as digital computers were in the middle of the last century.  Just as advances in digital computing inexorably moved computing power from large to smaller institutions, from libraries to homes, from desktops to hands, advances in AM will likewise, the Colonel believes without a shadow of doubt in his military mind, be marked by the same waypoints.

At some point in this innovation timeline, retail outlets will adapt to AM (if they haven't already begun to -- the Colonel is far from omniscient on the subject).  Imagine a store front with a very shallow back end. At kiosks up front, customers access products via computer (if they haven't already done so via their own web interface device) and place an order for an item to be "3D printed."  The retail outlet's automated system inputs the item's program to the relatively expensive (too expensive for home use at this point) AM machine which "prints" the item while the customer waits (as AM "matures" the wait will not be long).  The retail outlet has no inventory, except for the raw material used by the 3D printer. 

If you buy the premise posited in the last paragraph, now imagine the disruption to the current manufacturing and shipping industries. Significant portions of manufacturing will shift from relatively centralized to radically decentralized.  A significant portion of the shipping industry will shift from delivery of raw materials to factories, movement of intermediate forms of the final product from factories to assembly facilities, and movement of finished products through supply chains from distribution centers to retail outlets.  Instead, an increasing segment of the shipping industry will shift to delivery of raw materials to radically decentralized locations.  The overall template of shipping does not change radically, but the potential simplification of the supply chain offers economies of scale and time.  Not even considering, at this point, the impact of drone delivery mechanisms... 

Now, again using the personal computer analog, imagine AM machines, two generations hence, in every home.  The Colonel wants a new hammer.  He purchases the digital program via his internet interface and sends it to his personal 3D printer, which converts, via AM, raw material (from a variety of raw materials self-contained in his personal 3D printer -- think different colored inks in current 2D printers) into a hammer.  Or a dish.  Or a coffee mug.  Or a vehicle repair part.  Or components for a new smart phone.  The possibilities are as endless as they are exciting.

And, because the technology of AM is scalable and potentially self-replicating, the future is..., well, pretty darn exciting.

Couple AM with neural-machine interface (now becoming reality) and autonomous AI, and you have the potential for some serious disruption. 

We ain't there yet, but it's fun (or frightening, depending on your perspective) to think about.  And while he thinks about it, the Colonel will go mow the lawn.

The Colonel is looking forward to additive manufacturing his own autonomous, grass-height sensing, intelligent lawn mower.  That's when he'll know the future as really arrived!

Professional Reading, Volume I, Edition 1

The season of heat has begun here at the shallow northern end of deep southern nowhere.

Doesn't do any good but to accept it and adapt to it.

The Colonel's adaptation amounts to avoidance.  He still has plenty of chores and projects to knock out across his vast holdings.  He just has had to prioritize and temporize while the temps and attendant Mississippi humidity push the heat index well into the triple digits.

There was a time...,  back in the day...,  when the Colonel was a bit younger, and a lot less wise, that he relished the heat and humidity.  He waited until the sun, and its warmth, was at its zenith to go for his daily run.  The heat energized him.

Not so much, anymore.

Heat exhaustion is now the Colonel's shadow.  And, so, because the Colonel is shooting to live to be 120, he adapts and temporizes.

Early mornings are for outside chores and projects.  The rest of the day is for indoor activities.  And, as there are only so many inside chores and projects on the CRIPPLE (Colonel's Really Important Planned Projects List, Enumerated), the Colonel has decided to reinvigorate his professional reading program.  

Until a decade ago, when there was still the possibility of the Colonel participating in the Third World War, and the participatory requirement to draw on history's lessons learned, he maintained a rather robust reading program.  Over the past decade, his normal 20 to 25 books per year has dwindled to, shamefully, 2 to 3.

So, beginning this season of heat, the Colonel will draw on his albeit dwindled reservoir of self-discipline and push the page count.

He will, as the two dozen of you who regularly waste precious rod and cone time perusing posts hereon may have frighteningly  concluded, post hereon a review of each book, to include applicable lessons learned for the future of our Republic (or, in case the American Republic decides to belly up, the future Tallahatchie Republic -- to be initially headquartered here at the shallow northern end of deep southern nowhere).

The Colonel recently concluded Peter Cozzens' relatively even-handed and noteworthily nuanced "THE EARTH IS WEEPING, The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West."  The author's treatment, in a captivating and descriptive narrative, of the thirty-year war of concentration and attrition against the Native American tribes west of the Mississippi, is replete with examples of governmental inter- (and intra-) agency disconnect, strategic policy -- military operations mismatch, civilian and military leadership ineptitude, and failure to understand and appreciate enemy desires, will, and capability.  

Throughout the period in question, both sides continued to fail to grasp the enormity of the task presented them as the inexorable tide of treasure-seekers and homesteaders flooded westward.  In particular, the Plains tribes failed to cease their fierce internecine warfare (nearly until they were extirpated in all but a fraction of their former territory by the US Army, the Lakota Sioux considered the Crow and Pawnee far greater enemies than the whites) and unite to strike concentrated blows against the Americans until it was too late.  And, even when they did concentrate -- to the everlasting infamy of George Armstrong Custer -- they did so only temporarily and without a united follow-up campaign that may well have resulted in a negotiated peace that could have given the Indians a multi-generational peace on terms favorable to them.  

While there were many on both sides of the conflict who sought, and attained, deep understanding of the opposing side, they were far too often in the minority and rarely significant enough in the decision-making process.  Without understanding of the enemy, insufficient military resources (most of the small post-Civil War US Army was detailed to occupation and Reconstruction of the South), and with completely ineffective control of the American civilian population along the borders with and through (railroad and California-bound wagon trains) Indian territory, the Federal government was perpetually playing catch-up with regard to the situation in the West.   

In the end, however, this clash of cultures was won by the culture with the preponderance of four things -- manpower, technology, economic resiliency, and political unity.   The Plains tribes demonstrated, on more than one occasion, the ability to concentrate appropriate force coupled with technological adaptation (many tribes often fought with modern repeating rifles against US Army formations whose soldiers were equipped with older single-shot, albeit breech loading, weapons), but their loosely confederated and semi-nomadic culture was solely dependent on what turned out to be, considering their numbering in the tens of millions, a surprisingly fragile resource -- the buffalo.  Interestingly, the Plains Indian "horse culture" (which existed for little more than a century and not millennia, as is the popular misconception) and warrior reliance on their mounts for tactical advantage was actually an operational weakness  --  experienced Army officers learned to time their campaigns against hostile tribes for late winter when Indian pony herds were weak from lack of forage.   

The only true strategic set-back inflicted by the Plains tribes on the Americans was done so serendipitously.  Incessant attacks on the Northern Pacific rail line (and defeat of an Army detail sent to defend its construction) caused shareholder panic.  The company bankrolling the construction went bankrupt and the ensuing panic resulted in the economic depression of 1873.  The rail line construction stopped and the Lakota wrongly assumed their tactical victory had accomplished their campaign aim to stop white encroachment via the "iron horse" once and for all.  They failed to follow up and once the depression ended, track laying recommenced.    

Perhaps the greatest lesson to be drawn from the Indian wars for the West is the warfighting necessity for political unity and unity of effort.  Rare is the national leadership that goes to war without at least calculating that the initial force ratios (manpower and technology) are in their favor.  Not so rare are those that fail to ensure political unity, and fail to protect, as well as marshal for war support the preponderance of, their economies in order to ensure the most rapid victory and thereby preserve the will of the people.