Thursday, July 16, 2015

Swords and Plowshares

In the Colonel's not-so humble opinion those who entertain the pleasant delusion that any deal with the mad mullahs in Iran lessens the probability of war in the region share that pleasantly delusional state with those who believe that the current deal with the mad mullahs makes a war in the region more likely.

In plain truth, there will be another major war in that region within the next generation with or without some agreement ostensibly restricting Iranian development of nuclear weapons.

Count on it.

The Colonel isn't cynical -- well..., he is..., but on this score he's just plain realistic.  He's read way too much history to be otherwise.

First of all, the history of grand multinational arms limitation agreements preventing war is checkered at best.  For example, the international naval limitation treaties of the inter-war years in the last century did little to prevent the ultimate rise of the Axis powers and the horrific global war that followed.

One could point out that the strategic arms limitations treaties between NATO and the Warsaw Pact "kept the peace" during the Cold War, but in reality mutually assured nuclear destruction had more to do with keeping the U.S. and the Soviets from settling their political differences on the plains of Europe.  And, proxy wars embroiled both sides in costly side-show wars regardless.

Secondly, the Iranian regime is clearly expansionist.  Sure, it hasn't overtly invaded neighbors' sovereign territory, yet; but its clandestine claws are scratching open old wounds all across the region.  They have played the game extremely well, so far.  No move has been so overtly hostile as to draw a hard response.  But, even the most calculating chess player knows that gambits are no sure bet -- the other side is is calculating, as well.  

In military planners' parlance: "The enemy always gets a vote."

So, the Colonel believes, without a significant doubt in his military mind, that the Iranians will eventually miscalculate.

The road to war throughout history is paved with miscalculations.

Lastly, over the last 100 years alone, the region we call "the Middle East" has hosted a major war every dozen years on average.

The Colonel sees no reason to believe that the tensions and motivations that led to those conflicts has abated, or will for the foreseeable future.  And, a major war caused by Iranian hegemonistic designs cannot be sat-out by the United States. 

Don't beat your swords into plowshares just yet.      

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