Two decades ago, back at the beginning of the idiotically named Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) -- successful wars are fought against specific regimes; not their tactics -- the Colonel opined that unless and until the specific regimes employing terrorism as their asymmetric weapon of choice were deposed/destroyed, state-sponsored terrorism would continue to plague the planet.
Specifically, the Colonel identified the strategic center of gravity in this fight, and he will repeat it here:
The strategic center of gravity of the current troubles in the Middle East (with spill-over effects globally) is the Iranian theo-fascist regime.
Parenthetically, it matters not what the brand of theism is. Despite the inane and shallow attempts by many to portray the current conflict in the region as religiously motivated, the root cause of this conflict is the same as it has always been in every war in history: Land, Resources, and Power.
Let the Colonel repeat that for clarity. The root cause of all conflict is Land, Resources, and Power. And, yes, the Colonel includes supposedly religion-based conflicts such as the spread of various caliphates across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Iberian Peninsula, and the strategic counterattacks of the Crusades and the Castille-Aragon alliance.
Certainly, leaders cloak their ambitions in religious garb to inflame the passions of the people, but they couldn't care less for the spiritual welfare of their people -- only that they fall in line.
Iran -- more specifically, the theocratic dictatorship running the nation of Iran -- is the single largest supporter of terrorism on the planet. Has been for the last two generations. Without Iran's material support, Hamas, Hezbollah, and a plethora of lesser-known militant groups employing terror -- internally, as well as externally -- to exert control over local land, resources, and power, would not exist. Iran bankrolls these groups' terror tactics. Period.
The Iranian regime cloaks its territorial, resource, and power ambitions in the garb of Shia Islam, but the theo-fascist Iranian regime cares not one whit for the spiritual welfare of the people of the region.
So, if the Iranian regime is the strategic center of gravity of the current conflict in the Middle East, why did we waste so much time, blood, and treasure on peripheral campaigns (Afghanistan and Iraq, mainly) that had no appreciable effect on diminishing Iranian influence in the region?
Bushes' fault.
For those of you whose historical memory is limited by lack of study and/or age, the expeditionary forces of the United States and an unprecedented coalition of Middle Eastern and European nations had Saddam Hussein's bloody regime on the ropes in the Spring of 1991 and failed to administer the coup d' gras. What took another expensive expedition twelve years later to effect regime change, could have been accomplished quickly in 1991. That was George (the elder) Bush's fault.
The intervening decade saw a weakened Sadam Hussein's Baathist regime struggle (with bloody results) to resist growing Iranian influence over the majority Shia population in the southeastern portion of their territory, and a growing Kurdish nationalism in the northeastern portion.
Because we didn't depose Sadaam in 1991, he was left alive to plot an assassination attempt against Bush 41, for which Bush 43 held an understandable grudge. But grudges rarely make good bases for strategy. The attacks of 9/11/2001 and the resultant Congressional Authorization of Force for the Global War on Terror (the phrase still sets the Colonel's teeth on edge) gave Bush 43 the green light to topple Sadaam in the Spring of 2023.
A brilliantly executed destruction of Sadaam's forces was followed by a dismally bad occupation and rehabilitation of the nation of Iraq. Instead of maintaining an overwhelming force in Iraq until we re-established the security apparatus we broke, token forces were left in place with large red targets on their backs. Not only did the understrength US and allied forces struggle to defeat the Sunni insurgency in the west, but US forces were increasingly under attack by Iranian-backed militias in the south. It is no exaggeration to say that the theo-fascist regime in Tehran was directly responsible for several hundred US military deaths at the hands of Shia militia trained and supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Bushes' fault.
Had we liberated the Iraqi people from the brutal Baathist Regime immediately following the liberation of Kuwait in 1991, we would have been free to address the true center of gravity for the current terrorism scourge: the mad mullahs in Teheran.
And now, two decades later, the theo-fascist regime in Iran, whose tentacles have spread not only across the Middle East, but also throughout our own hemisphere, is at the bottom of the vast majority of the terroristic mischief plaguing regions whose fate are undeniably in the strategic interest of the United States.
It's not rocket science -- it's basic strategic thought. Iran's ruling regime is the Center of Gravity. Take it out and peace will break out.
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